"Furthermore, war is not chess; one's opponent is not always playing by the same rules, and is often, in the effort to win, attempting to change what rules there are."
What interests Clausewitz, I argue, is not so much either
pole in any of his analytical pairs, nor even either opponent in war, but the
tangled dynamics occurring between them. This is consistent with the wrestlers'
image of the Zweikampf. Many theorists tend, for the sake of analytical
simplicity, to force war into the model sequence of move-countermove. But any
good commander will seek to take advantage of the disproportionate effects or
unpredictable situations generated by nonlinearities. Furthermore, war is not
chess; one's opponent is not always playing by the same rules, and is often, in
the effort to win, attempting to change what rules there are. This is a major
reason that how war is conducted can and does change its character, and that
any war is (in Maxwell's sense) structurally unstable.
Capturing the essence of this "true chameleon"
is Clausewitz's aim. He is therefore willing to accept uncertainty and complex
interaction as major factors in order to cope with what is happening along the
hazy boundaries where the opposing forces in war, or contending categories in
theory, are actually engaged. Facing up to the intrinsic presence of chance,
complexity, and ambiguity in war is imperative. For Clausewitz, this is
preferable to the risk of being blind-sided by the strictures of a theory
artificially imposed on the messiness of reality in the name of clarity.
Unpredictability From Interaction, Alan Beyerchen, "Clausewitz,
Nonlinearity and the Unpredictability of War,"
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